Tuesday, October 2, 2007

Everyone to the Elections! Part 6: Aftermath

The results are still being counted, with claims of falsification being cast about on all sides. A few major questions have not been officially put to rest, but with only 2% left to count, here are some observations.

1) Despite some evidence of misdeeds on the behalf of the Socialist Party, it appears that the party will not gain seats in parliament. This is a great defeat for Oleksandr Moroz, calling into question his decision to defect from the Orange coalition last summer and partner with the Party of Regions. The only way that the SPU is likely to pass the 3% barrier now is through fraud.

2) The Party of Regions will get the most votes, but the Orange coalition is likely to have a majority of seats. If the Orange forces can come to terms with one another, they should be able to form a government. But, the last one was torn apart after a few months, so stability is not guaranteed.

3) This election does not resolve Ukraine's political problems and conflicts, but is the beginning of another stage. The greatest accomplishment is that, unlike in many of Ukraine's neighboring countries, the election results were not pre-ordained. Ukraine experienced another truly competitive election.

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